Some more than others. He’s like a really, really poor-man’s Patrick Corbin. Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA) RHP, 25% owned, @ARI, Wednesday 9/18 Charlie Morton late career renaissance driven by a velocity spike and strikeout rate surge was pretty amazing to follow. - Database Engineer Kuhl missed all of 2019 with Tommy John Surgery and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a big-league game just yet. They are making every pitcher look like Jacob deGrom. I probably started throwing one in my second or third start, in Indy. STREAM. I’ll take a chance on that after pick 225. He draws the Marlins next week, a far inferior offensive club to the Phillies and will be at home in PNC Park. Mongomery’s ratios on the season are not pretty but he’s been bounced in and out of the Cubs rotation and has since been moved to the Royals. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. It’s kind of a feel thing. Montgomery is not currently lined up for two starts next week if the Royals go forward with a six-man rotation but if he does, he would also draw the Marlins in Miami. I was thinking the same thing. Oh, and he demolished the Tigers last time out punching out 14 batters. The timetable for his return has him coming back in May or early-June but I’d bet on late-June. His slider is the key to his success and he’s throwing it 44% of the time, an increase of almost five percent from last year. His fastball averaged 95.5 mph and his slider has a crazy-high 27.3% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). by Handedness, Starting Pitcher Fastball Velocity Decliners — 7/28/20, A Review, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 858 – Fireside Chat: 2021 SP Rankings, Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. We are dealing with limited samples but hell, it’s after pick 250 and there is a top-150 ceiling here.”. I’ve already harped on how bad the Tigers are offensively, it’s like they are fielding a Triple-A team. Mitch Keller's fastball is averaging 93 in spring training. At the beginning of the year it was kind of like a cutter — it didn’t really have much depth to it — but then I started trying to use it more like a wipeout slider. “He showed me grips, and kind of told me what to think about, like reaching over the ball and pulling it down, rather than trying to force it — force spin on it. Alcantara should be owned in more than 50% of leagues, but fortunately, he’s right at the maximum threshold for next week. Just by going off of pitch usage, Keller was predictable. Overall like with his peripherals, there was a major league pitcher with almost identical numbers. Keller has outstanding movement on his slider and curveball. He also walked just 16 men, resulting in an outstanding 7% walk rate. Kyle Gibson‘s slider has a 27.1% SwStr%! In reality, that was .343, impart due to that .475 BAbip. I’d love that two-step and would start him for both if that’s how the Royals play it. This isn’t about Clevinger but you can see how valuable strikeouts are. This season, he apparently introduced a slider that he threw over 20% of the time, at the expense of his fastball and curveball. They are 29th in MLB with a 72 wRC+ away from Coors Field and have a 26.6% strikeout rate as a team. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His slider is good and the changeup has some potential, so he’s a late-round dart in 15-team formats. If Cease and Keller are the upside plays next week, Nova is a floor option similar to Leake. Since the All-Star break, Nova has eight outings where he’s given up three runs or less and in seven of those he gave up two earned runs of less. So I’ve taken things from him, and from two or three different pitching coaches, and tried to fine-tune it and make it my own. Certainly Barrel percentage is the best measure of a player’s power, O-Swing percentage or Chase rate is a measure of a hitter’s plate discipline. In addition, he’s throwing his sinker more often which not only generates more groundballs but also more whiffs which is rare for a sinker. I’ve been using it ever since, although it’s definitely changed. Cease, while struggling to find the zone has induced swings outside the zone over 35% of the time in two of his last three starts. “Going back to the beginning, I started throwing a curveball when I was 10, and that one I’ve been throwing my whole career. Dylan Cease (SP – CHW) RHP, 10% owned, @DET, Friday 9/20 Updated fantasy baseball rankings for the rest of the season. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. Let’s dive into the rest of my starting pitcher rankings for 2020. He’s only given up three earned runs in his last two outings and they were all allowed in Coors. As a team, the Marlins are rank last in the league in terms of, against right-handed pitchers with a 75 wRC+. Keller struck out 65 of the 227 batters he faced, giving him a 28.6% rate. Bellinger He missed time to a back injury, which might explain the velocity dip, as his strikeout rate plummeted into the mid-teens. I always wondered how he has been such a strikeout machine when he threw his fastball so frequently, so adding a third pitch is a big deal here. STREAM. I’m real curious to see how he gets valued and he he performs next year, as most have given up on him after his recent skills slide, and his 2020 might be the icing on the cake to completely ignore him. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. After my second Tommy John surgery, I stopped throwing that one and started throwing the slider I have now. Now the question is whether his 2018-2019 strikeout rate was the unsustainable performance, or was 2020 just a crazy season down year that we shouldn’t put much weight on? That’s huge because he still possesses a solid curveball which is his best secondary offering that generates a K-BB rate of 32%. Reynolds I guess that’s what goes through my mind when I think about throwing a really good one. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That’s great but his strikeout rate was 7.4 per nine innings. In previous seasons, I more or less handpicked the best streaming options for the week and therefore didn’t necessarily choose […], 2020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings ADP – Average Draft Position 2020 Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings ADP – Average Draft Position. You can see that post here. Am I picking on the Marlins? Forget about his inflated ERA, Keller’s FIP is a solid 3.92. Build your custom FanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis on Pittsburgh Pirates and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. I’m riding the hot hand and hoping he maintains his increased velocity because he’s more of an SP4 than a streamer when he’s throwing 93.5+. You bet I am. Yesterday, I reviewed how the starting pitchers that increased their fastball velocities the most after their first start fared over the rest of the season.