This risk-acceptant behavior can complicate the search for effective but proportional policy tools to counter this form of aggression, particularly when attempting to create off-ramps that de-escalate and return the situation to the status quo. Canada’s aim, as unpalatable as it might be to the Trudeau government, must be to strengthen those regional organs of collective security in which Russia plays an important role. For example, SOF have many functions, such as engagement and peacekeeping, that are not Gray Zone efforts, if only because they lack the objective of gaining competitive advantage over an adversary. A critical area in need of further exploration is the legal framework surrounding the U.S. response to GZ challenges. War is a contest of wills, and the digital information age has created a scenario in which political warfare is only going to become more decisive. December. For those GZ conflicts where these criteria are met, and the United States chooses to engage, the United States needs to give increased attention to improving its capabilities for such conflicts. Hon. William H. Tobey, Mr. Christopher Herrick, Executive Director, ISAB, Ms. Thelma Jenkins-Anthony, ISAB Action Officer, Individuals who consulted directly with the study group, either in person or via phone, Dr. Hriar Cabayan, Joint Staff/J-39, DDGO; It would be of great assistance if the ISAB could examine and assess: During its conduct of the study, the ISAB may expand these tasks, as it deems necessary. Arlington, VA: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. The Department of State has important contributions to make in this connection arising from its ability to quickly staff new lines of work in foreign countries with people with relevant skills and experience. For example, as noted above Afghanistan demonstrated deep flaws in developing policy coherence among NATO members in non-existential conflicts. Furthermore, in December 2015, Russia was accused of attacking Ukraine’s power grid through cyber-space, thereby disabling a large portion of the country’s infrastructure.4. The solution to challenges from Russia and China is not a military one but a political and collective one based on baseline requirements for building resilience or what we call strong state capacity, authority and legitimacy (Carment and Samy, 2017). What makes them quite different from traditional warfare is that the targets of cyber attacks are not just the military (although the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has recognised the significant risks it faces in operating highly information-dependent systems). [10] The case for such an arrangement, and discussion of its advantages, problems, and variations, is discussed in J. Jones, All Elements of National Power: Toward a New Interagency Balance For U.S. The Canadian Global Affairs Institute recognizes Canada’s contribution to a globalized world and aims to inform Canadians about Canada’s role in that process and the connection between globalization and security. Professor Carment has held fellowships at the Kennedy School, Harvard and the Hoover Institution, Stanford. To enable Australia to keep up, the government needs to train and entrust practitioners to contest this space. The first involved Pakistan’s support for the Taliban and the Canadian government’s failure both to acknowledge its negative impact on the Canadian mission and to derive an effective solution to cross-border incursions and safe havens. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. China’s ability to promote its interests on a global scale, and even change partnership priorities of individual countries, would stem from its considerable influence in the world economy; 3) Engagement in cyber and network warfare; and 4) Incorporation of non-state actors into conflicts. Similarly, President Trump’s reported obsession with intelligence briefings that relate to Germany and China’s commercial positioning rather than counter-terrorism matters, and President Macron’s recent broad definition of what constitutes a threat to Europe, are examples of how this area is being increasingly characterised as a domain of war rather than peace. The Department of State is uniquely situated to engage foreign nations and international organizations like the UN, EU, NATO, and other regional security institutions and to engage NGOs and private business as resources and allies. Prevention of GZ challenges will be enhanced by: Escalation is always a factor – sometimes a credible threat to increase or shift the scale and instruments the United States uses will increase the probability that the GZ campaign will fail, thereby contributing to dissuading the adversary from trying. However, this preoccupation with state survival began to wane in the 1970s – around the time it is believed the country produced its first nuclear weapon (Special National Intelligence Estimate 1974, 20). Usually the dominant element. Mr. Jay Rouse, Senior Strategist, Joint Staff /J5 Strategy Development Division; Mr. Brandon White, Chief of Targeting, Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control, Eurasia/Levant Team; and Read more: © Spearhead Research. A system needs to be established to inventory these skills and set up a mechanism to deploy the relevant personnel when needed. Dr. Jessica T. Mathews Then there is Russia’s involvement in the Baltics and Eastern Ukraine where we see mixed elements of grey-zone conflict and hybrid warfare or what we call “hybrid balancing”. In addition Professor Carment serves as the principal investigator for the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project (CIFP). 1. Other countries whose support and participation would be critical to success will often have different interests, both political and economic,[12] and it will be a significant task to secure their cooperation. Our increasing connectivity and reliance on information technology is a vulnerability that is being targeted by two key threats: cyber attacks, and the subversion of our democratic institutions and social cohesion. But it is possible to imagine at least hot-line exchanges over the most egregious examples of grey zone activity and, incrementally, a setting of boundaries. Effective defense against Gray Zone (GZ) tactics requires: In many cases, GZ challenges exploit genuine grievances and government and economic failures. Accordingly, the NSC should conduct broad planning for GZ operations and should be the entity to coordinate among agencies. Effective action requires both an appropriate organizational and operational structure for dealing with the general challenge and, for specific cases as they arise, a coherent policy framework and strategy to guide U.S. response – and indeed to determine if, and in what way, to respond. The answer to why Hungary and other states in CEE are turning away from liberal values does not lie with confronting Russia.